Tržišna realnost – da li smo pri kraju ili je ovo samo zagrijavanje?

Pogledajmo realnost – Bitcoin je prošao kroz faze ekstremnog rasta i padova, i svaki put kada bi se činilo da je sve gotovo, dolazio je novi talas rasta koji je nosio tržište u nove visine. Sada smo ponovo u situaciji gdje jedni govore da idemo do neba, dok drugi vrište da je sve prevara i da nas čeka potpuni kolaps.

Ako pogledamo makroekonomske faktore, vidimo jasne signale da tržište još uvijek nije iscrpljeno. Veliki igrači poput BlackRock-a, Fidelity-a i drugih institucionalnih investitora tek su počeli da se uključuju u igru. Oni nisu ovde zbog kratkotrajnih spekulacija – oni prave dugoročne planove i žele da kripto tržište stabilizuju, ali u korist svojih interesa.

Gdje nas vodi volatilnost – gore, dole ili u krug?

Volatilnost kriptovaluta je uvijek bila alat i oružje – zavisno od toga ko ga koristi. Za retail investitore, ona je često izvor frustracije, dok je za velike igrače prilika da preuzmu kapital onih koji ne znaju igrati ovu igru.

Ako se istorija ponavlja, onda idemo gore. Bilo je previše dokaza u prošlosti da svaki pad završava novim rastom. Ako je ovo scenario koji nas čeka, onda bi narednih 6 do 8 mjeseci mogli vidjeti historijske maksimume, s Bitcoinom iznad 100.000$, a altcoinima koji prate njegov ritam.

Ali šta ako idemo dole? Šta ako su institucije odlučile da isisaju likvidnost i gurnu kripto u duboku depresiju prije nego ga ponovo podignu? Mogućnost ovog scenarija ne može se isključiti, pogotovo ako regulacija u SAD-u i Evropi postane agresivnija. U tom slučaju, dug period konsolidacije može biti pred nama.

A šta ako idemo u krug? Šta ako se čitava igra sastoji u tome da mali investitori stalno budu u strahu, skaču sa pozicija na poziciju, dok tržište ne pokazuje jasnu smjernicu? Ovaj scenario je možda i najrealniji – jer je ponavljanje ciklusa najbolja strategija za one koji upravljaju tržištem.

Zaključak – kuda plovimo?

U konačnici, odgovor nije jednostavan. Ako vjeruješ u dugoročni potencijal kripta, odgovor je jasan – strpljenje i strategija su ključ. Ako si ovde samo da zaradiš na kratkoročnim skokovima, onda se moraš pomiriti sa brutalnom volatilnošću.

Tržište ne ide samo gore ili dole – ono se kreće u talasima, a pravo pitanje nije gdje plovimo, nego ko će ostati na brodu kada dođe oluja.

EN

Crypto is volatile! What is our situation? Where are we headed?

The crypto market has never been predictable, but now we are at a point where all scenarios seem possible. Volatility has always been a key characteristic of this industry, but the question arises – are we at the end of a cycle, the beginning of something bigger, or are we stuck in an endless loop of manipulation and speculation?

Market reality – are we near the end, or is this just the warm-up?

Let’s look at reality – Bitcoin has gone through phases of extreme growth and crashes, and every time it seemed like everything was over, a new wave of growth would carry the market to new heights. Now, we are once again in a situation where some say we’re heading to the moon, while others scream that everything is a scam and that a total collapse awaits us.

If we examine macroeconomic factors, we see clear signals that the market is far from exhausted. Major players like BlackRock, Fidelity, and other institutional investors are just beginning to enter the game. They are not here for short-term speculation – they are making long-term plans and want to stabilize the crypto market, but in their own favor.

Where is volatility taking us – up, down, or in circles?

Crypto volatility has always been both a tool and a weapon – depending on who uses it. For retail investors, it is often a source of frustration, while for big players, it’s an opportunity to absorb the capital of those who don’t know how to play this game.

If history repeats itself, we are heading up. There has been too much evidence in the past that every drop is followed by a new rise. If this is the scenario ahead of us, then in the next 12 to 18 months, we could see historic highs, with Bitcoin surpassing $100,000 and altcoins following its rhythm.

But what if we are heading down? What if institutions have decided to drain liquidity and push crypto into a deep depression before lifting it again? This scenario cannot be ruled out, especially if regulations in the U.S. and Europe become more aggressive. In that case, a long period of consolidation could be ahead of us.

And what if we are going in circles? What if the whole game is about keeping small investors in constant fear, jumping from position to position, while the market shows no clear direction? This scenario might be the most realistic – because repeating cycles is the best strategy for those who control the market.

Conclusion – where are we sailing?

Ultimately, the answer is not simple. If you believe in crypto’s long-term potential, the answer is clear – patience and strategy are key. If you are here just to make quick profits, you have to accept brutal volatility.

The market doesn’t just go up or down – it moves in waves, and the real question is not where we are sailing, but who will stay on board when the storm arrives.